David,

Steel and ships beat theory and forward curves. Every time.

Vaca Muerta is the part of the western hemisphere story Wall Street still cannot pronounce. That is usually how you know the trade is early.

Milei is raising Argentina from the dead with a chainsaw and a Rothbard paperback. Not how I would have drawn it up. Working anyway.

Guyana went from punchline to petrostate in five years. Exxon did that with paperwork.

Alberta deciding it is no longer Canadian is the kind of structural realignment that gets priced after somebody reads it in a comment thread.

Canada cannot pivot Pacific without crossing the Rockies, the courts, and three layers of activists glued to a pipeline. Geography does not negotiate.

The Saudis and Emiratis are about to spend money on steel that makes your bodybuilder comparison look like a snack.

Your "in time" is the part the forward curve refuses to respect. The market prices five quarters out. Steel infrastructure prices five decades out. The gap is the trade.

Thank you for the report from Rio. Beats anything coming out of Washington this week.

May the Mischief be with you.

Charlie