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Really useful framing. One thing worth adding to the picture. The just-published China’s 2026 Agriculture Outlook, the official annual survey predicting supply and demand over the next decade, is broadly moving in the same direction: soybean imports falling, domestic substitution increasing. Where it parts ways with the higher-transition scenarios is on pace. Grain consumption peaks around 2032, suggesting demand pressure eases gradually rather than sharply. We’ll be doing a deeper dive into the figures soon—watch for it in China Policy Leads.

Chartbook 445: Is a "China shock" coming for the "big ag" food regime?
May 4
at
5:50 AM
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