China imports 11.55 million barrels of crude oil per day. Over 70% of its consumption is imported. Over 90% arrives by sea.

Its EV fleet now displaces more than 1 million barrels per day of implied demand. At $100 per barrel, that is roughly $36.5 billion per year in avoided import costs. China adds 10 to 13 million new EVs annually. Each cohort displaces another 270,000 to 330,000 barrels per day.

Gasoline demand peaked in 2023 at around 3.7 million barrels per day. It is not coming back.

Beijing treats batteries as an energy-security asset rather than a climate product.