"But the most likely explanation, at least to my mind, is that they’re in pain. Whether as a result of transphobia or racism or something completely unrelated."

I think you have the causal relationship here reversed. The pain doesn't come from electively joining a marginalized group (and then striving to increase the marginalization); the joining of the group is a reaction to pain, to dissatisfaction, to emptiness.

In the past people would relocate and change their names, "starting over," escaping a life that wasn't working. Of course this failed because they brought the source of their dissatisfaction with them.

I've said it many times; the number laying claim to "trans" is so far in excess of those who would medically qualify as dysphoric that it would be facile to ignore that "trans" is a fad. Or to ignore how many "detransition" back to "cis" (ugh) and come out as gay or just go back to who they were before (maybe missing a few body parts).

I think Stephanie was a bitter and unhappy person before .. whatever pronoun .. decided to join the latest Justin Bieber Fan Club.