At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is finding asymmetry. Maybe this rate path is correct, maybe it’s an overreaction. What I see when I look at this situation is a market that may have gotten a bit carried away, and one that gives a pretty decent chance of pushing out a few of these cuts into 2025 if the current economic momentum we’ve got continues. TRADE: SELL Z4 ON H4Z4Z5 FLY ENTRY: -0.835 TARGET: -0.33 I see the H4Z4Z5 fly as having well-defined risk/reward and offering a natural entry point at -83.5bps with a well defined stop at the pre-SVB lows about 5bps (or 10 ticks) lower.