PA last midterms would seem to say otherwise.

I think reverse coattails may be the incorrect term here.

Coattails: the yop of the ticket boosting the bottom (see, Obama, 2008).

Reverse coattails would be the bottom of the ticket boosting the top. Say, running candidates in all the races, etc.

I think the better term here may be "negative coattails" where the top is so bad it hurts everyone downticket.