We're very insulated from the oil shock here in the US because the US is now the biggest and most theological petrostate, and has secured a fragile soft landing for itself through the energy transition by being an asshole to the remaining 95% of humanity (the US population is ~4.5% of the world). This is starting to look like Covid 2.0 in other parts of the world. All because Trump decided to launch a war of choice, against the mandate of even the majority of his own paranoid tribe. Against literally the oldest adversary of the West with the best historical record against it. Even if modern Iran is an entirely different entity than ancient Persia, it's the same people and the same geography. It's one thing to retreat from being the global cop. It's quite another to embrace an eschatology that out-ayatollahs Iran itself, and gleefully lean into planet-scale moral hazard that blows up a century’s worth of hard-earned national goodwill in a few weeks. To some extent I can at least understand Israeli actions even if I can't condone them. They have stakes, existential concerns, and no easy alternative postures. But the US has talked itself into the dumbest corner and death spiral of any empire. Soviet, British, Ottoman, Spanish, Rome… all declined-and-fell less stupidly and gracelessly than this. About the only silver lining here is that as a democracy, there’s something of an off-ramp in November before the decline-and-fall death spiral accelerates to irretrievable. The Dems may be as hawkish on Iran (notably non-critical) but will have a few rational-actor off-ramps available to them that Trump can’t use. Like being nice to allies.