The big surprise over the next few years is that climate change is not a partisan political issue. Earlier models underestimated the pace of warming, and temperatures are now rising faster than expected. AI will narrow the gap between models and observed data.

Part of the acceleration comes from changes in shipping fuel. Sulphur in marine diesel reflected sunlight and reduced ocean heating. Cleaner fuels removed that effect, increasing heat absorption. What began as a necessary environmental step has also functioned as an own goal, removing a layer of cooling the system had been relying on.

At the same time, emissions are being redirected rather than eliminated. Ships using open-loop scrubbers wash exhaust gases with seawater, which absorbs sulphur oxides, particulates, and heavy metals. That contaminated washwater is then discharged straight back into the ocean as effluent. This shifts pollution from the atmosphere into marine systems, where it can affect phytoplankton that play a role in absorbing CO₂.

This effluent dumped into our oceans is in the 10s of millions of litres PA

A further concern sits in the Atlantic circulation system. The AMOC depends on temperature and salinity gradients to move heat northward. Rapid freshwater input from ice melt and intensified warming can weaken or reorganise this flow. Paleoclimate evidence, including the Younger Dryas, shows that abrupt shifts in this circulation can trigger large, rapid climate changes. Current warming increases the likelihood of instability in this system, with consequences for regional climates, especially across Europe and the North Atlantic.

The reality is that this looks to be moving way too quickly for any system of renewable energy to avoid and it’s about to happen much more quickly than anyone predicted