Disinflation has been in full force since we received the November 2022 CPI data in Dec’22.

Here’s the data to support my view:

• YoY energy prices will be negative through at least June'23

• YoY shelter will start to decelerate by June'23

• Median & trimmed-mean CPI & PCE are decelerating

• Credit creation is decelerating

• Nominal wage growth is decelerating

• Supply chains have eased

• Consumer is slowing down

• Effective federal funds rate > YoY Core PCE

• The Fed is still hiking, and the brunt of the rate hikes haven’t had their full material impact on the economy/financial system.

• Deflationary pressure from banking concerns

• Peak fiscal spending is behind us

• COVID Medicaid benefits expire soon

• Student loan payments to resume soon

Did I miss anything?