As usual cook puts way too many races in toss-up.

The last time an outparty incumbent Governor lost was 2014. With that background putting AZ in tossup is not justifiable. Hobbs even has positive job approval. Lean D for me.

With Duggan running as an independent, toss up is fine. Duggan has very real spoiler potential for dems.

NV-GOV is lean R for me. Lombardo is popular and the trends in NV are not good.

WI-Gov is also lean D. Evers would start out as the clear favorite. Even without him abortion is a huge bonus for any democratic candidate here. The state even trended left in 2024.

VA-GOV is lean D for me. About the only thing republicans have going for them is Youngkin being popular. And that rarely transfers to a new candidate.

Dems have the lean of the state on their side. There are decades of the outparty winning VA-GOV.

Spanberger is the better candidate. Carefully crafted moderate image. She worked on bi-partisan legislation . Voted against Pelosi and attacked the left over defunding the police.

She has outraised Sears and lead the limited polling we have seen so far.

Meanwhile Sears has quite conservative social views that are a liability. No high-profile breaks from her party. Neither has she shown that she can talk convincly about her stances on social issues.