If the benefits of the Great Power-led old world order were exaggerated, will a new order be better if organised by Middle Powers, again with small states in tow? Or should small states develop self-resilience, to be flexibly with this coalition or that, as long as all such groupings remain incentive-compatible?

Alec Russell describes how the decline of the old order might lead to a free for all, or might open up new opportunities, for those with greater capability and seeking to come out from under the long shadow of US hegemony.

To paraphrase John Mearsheimer, however, many observers don't recognize that Middle Powers and Great Powers follow the same playbook. They think Middle Powers will act differently and not follow the same ruthless, self-serving, hegemonic tendencies as the Great Powers. But this is not how international politics works. All nations execute the same cost-benefit, supply and demand calculations that determine how they will behave in any world order. If the Great Powers have come to feel they don't benefit from enlightened strategic leadership in the international system, so too eventually will Middle Powers.

Alec Russell. 2025. "Middle Powers Face a New Age of Uncertainty" (Tue 23 Dec)