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At IMF "Asia in 2050" we discussed many things. I had opportunity to speak to the audience twice. Here's what I said.
Small states are the world's most surprisingly successful economies---apart from one very large outlier, eight of the world's nine richest economies (by per capita income) average in population only 4mn, smaller than Singapore.
Almost all discussion of geopolitics and the global economy, however, focuses on large nations.
When we discuss the success and future of Asia, it is right of course to marvel at the remarkable trajectories of China and India. But a number of challenges are specific to just those giants, and don't generalize to help us understand and guide the growth prospects of the great majority of other states.
Our world is dotted with a few gigantic nations. But everyone else is a smaller state, and the distribution is extremely right-skewed. The mean-median ratio of national populations across each of the world's and Asia's cross-section distribution is four. For the world that ratio used to be six. The top 10% of Asian nations contain over 70% of the region's population.
Smaller states don't debate if the retreat from globalization and multilateralism is a rupture or a tear. It is hugely consequential for them to have had for the last eight decades a level playing field, commitment to peaceful dispute resolution, and a norm of cooperation, although no longer.
Even if historically smaller states have faced the realist challenge by being mere price-takers, they can no longer afford to behave that way.
Here are some strategies of economic statecraft for small states in a disrupted world order.
Quah, Danny. 2026 "Asia's Evolving Economic Landscape" (Mar)
(The added treat for me was getting to discuss these matters with IMF MD Kristalina Georgieva.)
