In my view, the question facing Conservatives isn't whether Poilievre can get MORE popular over time, but whether they will be able to find another leader who can be AS popular. Who attracts as much intense positive appeal (even if there's a lot of intense negative appeal).

Looking back on our tracking of opinions of the last three Conservative leaders shows Poilievre has on average been more popular and despite losing the election, his popularity has held steady unlike what happened to Scheer or O'Toole.

The biggest difference is how popular Mark Carney is at the moment.

Also, looking back at our 2011 Federal Election polling, at the end of March, Stephen Harper's net favourable was -17. Layton's was +13 and we know how that ended.

Stay tuned for an op-ed in the Toronto Star tomorrow.