Unquestionably a very tough one—Dems actually made this district slightly *redder* (if you can believe it) to help shore up Tom Suozzi in the 3rd.

But the bigger difficulty is that this district, like all the seats on Long Island, is contained entirely within the NYC media market, which is the most expensive in the nation. And it's therefore unlikely that major outside groups like the DCCC or House Majority PAC would come to Avlon's aid given that this district is not on the road to a majority. (What I mean is, if NY-01 flips, a lot of other seats have as well.)

Avlon, at least, is a good fundraiser, so he should be able to get his name out on his own. But I think he also has a serious weakness that has plagued other candidates on eastern Long Island (like Perry Gershon), which is that he doesn't really have strong ties to the area. And this is one of those regions that is very conscious of the impact that folks from NYC have.