The app for independent voices
Well, well, well: seasonally-adjusted, payroll employment in July was no higher than we had thought yesterday it had been in June. Our estimate of the June level has been revised down by 21,000—yes, the last report that maddened Trump was more optimistic than it looks now like the situation warranted. And the seasonally-adjusted gain from June to July was only 22,000:
BLS: Employment Situation Summary: ‘Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset by losses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction…. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 27,000, from +14,000 to -13,000, and the change for July was revised up by 6,000, from +73,000 to +79,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported…
Total gain over the past three months: 88,000, which 29,000 per month: genuine stall speed.
If the tariff situation were at all settled, this would put me on the side of looking through what are (probably) still one-off price-level increases and lead me, were I on the FOMC, to prefer an 0.50% policy interest rate cut.
But the tariff situation is not at all settled, is it?:
Josh Wingrove: Trump Says ‘Fairly Substantial’ Chips Tariffs Coming ‘Shortly’ <bloomberg.com/news/arti…>: ‘“Tim Cook would be in pretty good shape,” Trump said Thursday of the Apple chief executive officer…. “I’ve discussed it with the people here, chips and semiconductors, and we’ll be putting tariffs on companies that aren’t coming in,” Trump said. “We’ll be putting a tariff very shortly. You probably are hearing we’ll be putting a fairly substantial tariff, or not that high, but fairly substantial tariff”…
So the right and prudent policy for the Fed at its September meeting is, still, to stand pat.
