Economics: With each month that passes in which what we thought was a substantially restrictive monetary policy fails to send the economy into a recession accompanied by a frantic reversal and easing, the odds of the particular "long boom" scenario increase. This "long boom "scenario is one of a substantial increase in the perceived value of investment driving interest rates markedly higher for a time—at least the medium term. Whether we avoid having it all ending in tears depends on whether we (a) actually get the productivity boosts that investing firms see within their grasp, and (b) successfully rebalance the economy to lower-deficit and lower-consumption shares of output configuration in time:

Tracy Alloway & Joe Weisenthal: Odd Lots Newsletter: It's the Long Boom: ‘This is the macro story of the moment. The Long Boom. The no landing. The economy that keeps chugging along mightily, even in the face of high rates and a presumed rate cutting cycle that keeps getting pushed out further and further into the future…. Greenification… electrification… artificial intelligence and data-center boom… nearshoring…. One of Steve [Eisman]’s main contentions is that companies that used to be cyclical have turned into secular… sustained demand tailwinds for things like cement, or lighting or HVAC equipment… that won’t necessarily fluctuate with this quarter’s GDP or the next one…. That transition from cyclical to secular is broadening out with all the secondary and tertiary companies facilitating this capex boom… <bloomberg.com/news/news…>