The AI capex boom is not just a Big Tech story.

It is becoming a semiconductor free cash flow story.

Hyperscalers are expected to spend $680B in 2026 capex:

Microsoft: $157B

Google: $186B

Meta: $138B

Amazon: $200B

And on the other side of that spending cycle, the major semiconductor players are expected to generate $525B in free cash flow.

Nvidia alone: $184B

Samsung: $132B

SK Hynix: $110B

Micron: $54B

TSMC: $46B

This is why the market has been rewarding parts of the semiconductor chain so aggressively.

The question is no longer just: “Who is spending on AI?”

The better question is: Who is collecting the cash flows from that spending?

That is where the real investment debate begins.