I too think that’s the most likely outcome. However, I do think there’s a path to victory (although very narrow) only if Cassidy after a brutal primary and JBE make it to the runoff. Republicans despise Cassidy in the way many of them hated Tate Reeves in MS or Roy Moore in AL (not for the same reasons obviously, but the intensity of the dislike) causing those Republicans to massively underperform the GOP baseline. If it’s anyone, but Cassidy, JBE’s toast.

You could easily imagine part of them sitting out though if he’s in the runoff, lowering the threshold for JBE to be victorious. With Trump in the White House turbocharging D turnout, that might just barely be enough for a conservative Democrat to pull off a remarkable major upset with 48-51% of the vote (I say less than 50% is possible for him to still win because of blank ballots or write-in protest votes).