Starting to see more polling showing “it’s a blue wave” than polling with Trump being ahead. That about sums up where we are right now in the cycle + just how much has changed since Biden dropped out. Before that, Biden’s best polls showed a tie or slight lead and worst had Trump winning in a wave.

Before anyone asks, no, there is zero downballot data showing that right now, the wave polls are outliers. The average is about D+2 right now in the GCB and Washington primary had it at D+4, so that’s about the range of where the data shows us to be currently. Slightly less or slightly more than 2020.