From The Fugue Loop Goes Global, this is the passage I keep returning to today:

“The Gulf states are watching. Europe is watching. China is watching. Russia is watching. Iran is watching. Ukraine is watching. Everyone is making decisions not only about what the United States says, but about whether the United States can still make its words function as guarantees.

A guarantee that depends on trump’s mood is not a guarantee.

It is weather.

And weather is something others prepare for, route around, endure, or exploit.”

That feels like the hinge right now.

Iran, Hormuz, Ukraine, Russia, China, NATO, weapons stocks, shipping, inflation, alliance trust… not separate crises exactly, but fronts beginning to make decisions inside one another’s logic.

This is what I mean by the fugue loop going global. substack.com/home/post/…