If you’re expecting an up year — like we are — history suggests you should think in terms of something closer to a 17% gain, not a single-digit grind. That puts the S&P 500 around 8000.

At that level, our earnings/valuation matrix points to roughly 22–24x earnings, assuming 2027 EPS lands between $340 and $360 by year-end. That will sound expensive to plenty of investors. But by that point, forward profit margins are expected to reach about 15.6%.

So yes, we’ll likely continue to hear the word bubble, as bearish chants only grow louder the more powerful this bull market becomes. But in our view, this market remains fairly valued — not only today, but also 12 months from now, even 17% higher.

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