Duane McMullen (@duanemcmullen): "Is the S-curve on semi-conductors finally flattening? Like the S-curve on commercial aircraft speed flattening at just below the speed of sound because the economics didn't justify going faster?"

Make money doing the work you believe in

Is the S-curve on semi-conductors finally flattening? Like the S-curve on commercial aircraft speed flattening at just below the speed of sound because the economics didn't justify going faster?

In 2025, High-NA EUV entered production. It cost $380 million per tool, delivering 562 million transistors per dollar. Less than 2023 and 2021. The 2026 node projects to 412 million. If it holds, it will be the first sustained decrease in transistors-per-wafer-dollar since EUV restored the curve in 2019. The deal – the specific economic bargain that made the digital economy possible – is bending.

Azeem Azhar and Hannah Petrovic

May 11

12:15 PM

Make money doing the work you believe in

Log in or sign up