The deeper Bitcoin’s drawdowns, the longer they last.

There is a clear relationship between how far Bitcoin falls and how long it takes to recover. Historically, every additional 10% of drawdown adds roughly 80 days to the duration.

At the current dept, that points to something on the order of 300 days.

This doesn’t say where price goes next. But it does tell you what kind of time horizon you are dealing with in this regime.