Paul Krugman is panicking. Now oil executives are panicking publicly too. And they’re right to be.

This morning at the Sanford Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Exxon SVP Neil Chapman seemed to drift a little off the corporate script:

“Commercial inventories of crude oil, of liquids petroleum, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel they've all run down. […] We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels. Really, really low levels. […] Once you get to that point, you'll see price shoot up. Dated Brent, a model would say, will shoot up […] to $150, $160. […] And I think crude being in this sort of $90 to $110 for the last six weeks has really been mitigated by running down inventories. It can’t last forever.”

Translation: the only reason oil isn't already at $150 is because the West is burning through its strategic reserves to keep the price down.

Meanwhile, oil markets are shrugging at the supposed “ceasefire”, even as US bombs keep hitting Iranian drones and territory, Iran calls off the deal, reaffirms it on national TV, then calls it off again, and then reaffirms it once again.

And this after FIVE successful peace deals announced by President Trump. He really is a dealmaker, isn’t he?

As I've argued on my Substack before: the White House is deliberately manipulating the oil price. And right now, it looks like Iran is turning the tables and playing their game back.

I think they want to catch Trump with his pants down. Keeping oil suppressed means Western demand drains the strategic reserves, while the Iranians have little left to lose. The US and Israel assassinated the dovish leaders. Only the hardliners remain.

I don’t have the answers. Maybe there's a deal tomorrow. Maybe there isn’t.

But the Western elite is PANICKING. Take that for what you will.