Despite being the #1 reason VCs auto pass, TAM has a really crappy track record. It matters ultimately of course. But, especially when you consider the importance of being non-consensus, it’s wild how many “small markets” turned out to be venture-scale. Oops.

All of these had initial TAMs perceived to be ~$1B or less.

All of them turned out to be worth 10-100x that.

What should we add to the list?

———

Shopify – “Websites for small online stores”

ServiceTitan – “Invoicing for plumbers"

Veeva – “SFDC add-on for pharma sales reps”

Unity – “Game engine for indie developers”

Atlassian – “Bug tracking for developers”

Guidewire – “Policy mgmt for insurers”