The hyperscalers’ AI buildout is accelerating faster than expected. In our essay a few months ago, projected CapEx was ~$400B. Based on earnings updates this week, 2026 looks more like >$650B—a level we thought was three years out.

The net result: the gap between AI capex and monetization is widening. What we projected as a ~$1T revenue gap for 2026 is now 30-50% higher.

Our initial essay: