Why Ottawa needs real polling not vibes

Ottawa is fortunate to have David Valentin and Liaison Strategies’ Capital Tracker poll keeping score during this municipal campaign. A survey based on probability samples with a margin of error of +- 3 per cent tends to cut through the rhetorical fog and media speculation. First, it tells us what Ottawans actually think and not what campaigns wish they thought. Second, it can puncture the carefully staged narratives campaigns push through their social media, flyers, and media commentary. Third, it tells us who has momentum and who will likely win. If a candidate is up by double digits in September, they will likely be on the new Council. Could such a gap close late? Sure. Miracles happen but with low probability. If Mayor Mark Sutcliffe is within the margin of error against his closest rival come September, then that race snaps open. Finally, polls showing close races may motivate more volunteers to sign up for campaigns. That’s good for local democracy.