A couple thoughts on that Des Moines Register/Ann Selzer poll of Iowa, with the extreme caveat that nobody knows what’s going to happen Tuesday.
Ann Selzer is just about one of the most perfect pollsters out there, and she doesn’t tend to miss. Like, ever. She seems to feel very confident in this poll.
I’m not a mathematician, but I’m pretty good at reading political vibes. my theory of this election has been that in every election since Dobbs, Democrats have overperformed the polls, sometimes wildly. And not one pundit or analyst has provided any good reason why that shouldn’t extend to the presidential, the most important election of all. So this shocking result may not be in line with what the herd of pollsters is saying, but it fits within my theory. For whatever that’s worth.
I imagine Trump is throwing a lot of ketchup at the wall tonight.
VOTE.
