A few decades ago, I read a newspaper article that stated with zero uncertainty that solar panels will never, ever pass 30% efficiency because of the Shockley-Queisser Limit (which is a real thing, first calculated in 1961: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S…).

This outspoken writer then used the line: “because of this limit, we will never make solar panels efficient enough to power everyday life.”

Now, this has happened - see screenshot below.

Over a THIRD.

(That’s a Bluesky post via historian & sci-fi author Ada Palmer, a trustworthy source, and it links to this story, which also checks out: cleantechnica.com/2026/…)

In the lab, things have already been even crazier: 47.6%, in 2022, also by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, but not under conditions that would translate into the real world, eg. the roof of your house.

Who knows what’s next? We’re finding out, at great speed.

Performative certainty is charismatic. Performative certainty prints money and grabs all the attention. And performative certainty is usually proven deeply stupid, given enough time.

(It’s also unscientific. Real scientists? They’d never.)

Trust the uncertaintists. They’ll guide you in the right direction.