Florida isn't a deep red state - 2022 is the only recent year where Republicans romped in the state (at least as far as top-line state elections, I'm not going further into the weeds than that).

However, I think Florida is slowly getting redder and is fairly inelastic now, so we will usually have a high floor but a low ceiling. It's going to be close, but it's probably more vain hope than really winnable in my opinion - getting the last 2-5% to win in this kind of environment is just really, really difficult.

It's not impossible, though.