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Last thoughts before the Memorial
As we prepare for Thursday morning, two things from Scottie and Rory’s interviews today worth flagging:
They each, separately, described the importance of precision at Muirfield Village.
Scheffler called it a placement course. "It's more about placing the ball in the right spots and taking your opportunities," he said, contrasting it with Bay Hill, where players can be more aggressive. He walked through the holes with no bailout — 3, 12, 14 — where the only option is to execute. "You got to step up there and hit really, really good golf shots."
That matches what 50 years of ShotLink data shows. Approach play accounts for nearly 40% of winners' total strokes gained here, more than OTT and ARG combined. You have to place the ball, find the greens, and avoid the rough, which cuts birdie probability by more than 20 percentage points on the course's most scoreable holes.
Scheffler’s tee-to-green average at this event is +3.34 strokes per round, which is he highest of any player in the ShotLink era at this course. In his own framing, he’s the type of player Muirfield is built for.
Then Rory explained why this place has frustrated him for 13 years: “For being such a long golf course I feel like it takes driver out of my hand a lot, which, you know, I pride myself on that being one of my biggest weapons,” he said. "The fairways pinch in right around the spots where I would be finishing driver. So it's frustrated me in a way that I feel like my biggest weapon is in some way neutralized here."
Rory has one of the five highest OTT averages in this event's modern history, but he knows that advantage largely disappears at Muirfield. What he needs instead is iron precision and approach play from tight positions, which isn’t where he's been strongest here. He acknowledged that: "It's just about me being a little more disciplined and not being so aggressive with my strategy."
It’s easy to question Rory’s motivation week to week, given his focus on the Masters and other majors. But it’s clear he wants the win here, if for no other reason than, like at Augusta, put those ghosts in his past to bed.
"I would love to take that little walk up the hill off the 18th green and shake Jack's hand," he said. Whether he’ll bring the right game this week for this course will be answered starting tomorrow.
Finally, I’m still grappling with what to think about Ludvig Åberg. He's finished T5 in five of his last eight starts, compared against 10 of those over his first 60 career events combined. His approach play ranking has moved from 98th last season to 8th this season. He has improved in every single strokes-gained category year over year, one of seven players on Tour to do that. He arrives at a course where approach play is historically the defining skill, and he arrives in the best iron-playing form of his career. But it’s hard to shake his weekend fades at the Players and Valero.
The course is firm and the rough penalty will be fully in play. For Ludvig, Scottie, Rory, or anyone else to win, they’ll need to commit to their targets, hit the fairways, and find the greens.
