The Fed decision is the obvious hinge for the dollar today. Oil has backed off, yields have faded, and the market is walking into the meeting expecting no change on rates but fresh projections from Powell and co. That makes the current softer-dollar mood understandable, but also fragile.

Simple takeaway: don’t treat a pre-Fed USD drift as a trend by itself — wait to see whether Powell leans into sticky inflation or gives the market room to keep fading the dollar.