The market cannot get too comfortable because Iran confirmed missile strikes on Israel’s Haifa and Ashdod refineries, while also threatening American and Israeli infrastructure and warning of a new escalation. So even with some optimism around Hormuz, the energy story is still live on both sides: partial relief in one place, fresh risk somewhere else.

If refinery and infrastructure threats keep building, keep any EUR/USD or GBP/USD long tactical rather than turning it into a conviction swing.