The euro side is a bit more nuanced than “oil up, euro down.” Makhlouf warned against complacency and said policymakers need to stay alert to inflation expectations becoming disanchored, while Nagel said the ECB must act if second-round effects start to show up. That does not suddenly make EUR/USD bullish, but it does mean the euro is not coming into this as a policy-empty currency.

If the dollar pauses and oil stops climbing, EUR/USD can stabilise faster than traders expect — so avoid chasing late shorts into obvious support.