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One of the more interesting dislocations in the high-yield market right now involves a company that has operated through the extremes of our economic cycle like the 2008 financial crisis and a global pandemic without missing a bond payment, that carries more than $8 billion in primary liquidity against less than $1.5 billion of near-term debt maturities, and whose largest rating agency just reaffirmed a stable outlook in writing six weeks ago. The market is pricing its 2033 senior unsecured notes at nearly 7% yield to maturity. We think the spread reflects a credit concern that the actual balance sheet, delinquency trends, and earnings trajectory simply do not support. The full analysis, including the investment case, a candid discussion of the back-book credit overhang, and exactly what a bank charter approval would mean for these bonds, is behind the paywall.

The Market Is Paying You 7% to Lend to a Hundred-Year-Old Franchise. Value Worth Exploiting.
May 8
at
12:49 AM
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