Bypassing the Gulf? The Geopolitical Rebirth of the Nigeria-Morocco Pipeline

Nigeria and Morocco aim to reach a final agreement on the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) by the end of the year.

The ongoing conflict between the U.S.-Israel and Iran is injecting new life into major infrastructure projects previously tarnished by economic, financial, and security hurdles, as they are now viewed as vital alternatives to energy sourced from the Persian Gulf.

The head of Morocco’s hydrocarbon and mining agency (ONHYM), currently the most influential authority in the Moroccan energy sector, has stated that Rabat and Abuja intend to sign an intergovernmental agreement on the project—also known as the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline—by the end of 2026.

We should remain cautious. Last year, both nations claimed they would reach a Final Investment Decision (FID) by the end of 2025.

What we may be witnessing is simply another opportunistic maneuver by regional players capitalizing on increased geopolitical volatility and market instability.

The ultimate goal is not merely to supply Morocco with gas from the 13 involved West African nations, but to export significant volumes to Europe, by far the most profitable market.

However, the project's costs—currently estimated at $25 billion—are expected to climb further given the immense complexity of the scheme.

The pipeline would cross 13 countries, from Ghana and Sierra Leone to Senegal and Mauritania, with each section reportedly requiring independent financing and construction by respective stakeholders.

Furthermore, the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline must compete with a growing push for low-carbon energy sources in many of the transit countries.

In essence, even a bilateral agreement between Morocco and Nigeria cannot change the fact that no major international financial institution has yet pledged formal support for the project.

Could this change in the face of prolonged instability in the Persian Gulf and its potential expansion across the Middle East?

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