🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post, examining the reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile intercept rate — from 37 to 6 percent — reported by the Financial Times.

That Russian ballistic missiles can maneuver is neither new nor surprising. Western interceptors such as PAC-2 GEM-T, PAC-3 MSE, and Aster 30B1/B1NG were built with this threat profile in mind.

Still, reports now suggest that Russia is now using steeper trajectories to better circumvent Ukrainian defenses. This is a plausible if not fully verifiable claim.

A steeper trajectory, compared to a more shallow one, trades lateral maneuverability for greater vertical momentum and reduced reaction time.

Given that the PAC-3 MSE is highly agile and can compensate for lateral movements relatively well, Russian officials may have concluded (and potentially now see confirmed empirically) that this is a worthwhile tradeoff.

Other explanations also exist.

Russia may increasingly strike non-defended areas, and since Ukraine does not disclose engagement data, we cannot distinguish between attempted and unattempted intercepts. Interceptor shortages may play a role as well.

Most likely, and unsurprisingly, the drop reflects a combination of factors rather than a single cause.