Trump ordered a naval blockade targeting Iranian port traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks in Pakistan ended without a deal, and Brent ripped 7% back above $102. The S&P opened lower and is currently grinding back towards flat, which tells you the Street is reading this the same way I did yesterday: not a collapse, a negotiation. Both sides stayed 21 hours, most points were agreed to, and the ceasefire is still holding. The blockade is pressure, not escalation for its own sake. The real risk is not the headline, it is the backdrop. Oil above $100, a 50% China tariff threat tied to weapons transfers to Iran, and a ceasefire window expiring April 22. That is how stagflation chatter comes roaring back.

Elsewhere, tech is having a day. Oracle popped nearly 9%, though it is still more than half off its September highs. Microsoft up 2.5%, which genuinely feels like the first meaningful green day in ages, with earnings April 29 as the real tell. Bitcoin dipped below $71K overnight before bouncing above $72K, positioning noise more than conviction.

Market Snapshot (~12:30 PM ET): S&P 6,820 | Nasdaq 22,972 | Brent $102 | 10Y 4.33% | VIX 19.85 | BTC $72,176