I wish I could like this post a dozen times. Your dead on with the arc of history, but the reality is that it is an educational problem. We don't teach true information literacy, and if we did these days it would be subverted by activists. We are all born as clueless babes and need to learn the tools to think clearly.

Most people don't even use probabilistic thinking to frame their understanding of the world. People like Kate Starbird will say things like "Biden won the 2020 election fair and square", which she is in no position to know as the vote is impossible to fully audit from voter to vote. The system, by its nature, has an element of the unknowable. Elections require an element of faith, and faith in the system has broken down. I don't truly 'know' whether any fairly close election was fairly decided.

In this case, I need to account for all the evidence, the motivations in a highly charged political climate (why wouldn't you cheat to stop a Nazi?), the knowledge that our security services tried to subvert Trump and are skilled in changing elections in other countries (all speculation, but would the CIA put a backdoor into voting systems like they do with other technologies). Putting it all together with an estimate, I'm ~85-90% sure that Biden won the 2020 election fairly - but to claim 100% certitude is a gross misrepresentation of reality, and is itself misinformation.