The Gulf just learned what an American security umbrella is worth when the rain comes in sideways, and the answer is less than advertised.

A hundred days of Iranian missiles hit every GCC state. Qatar lost nearly a fifth of its LNG output at Ras Laffan and declared force majeure for the first time in its history. The US bases meant to protect the Gulf were the very things that painted targets on it.

So now, with the ceasefire signed, the headline writes itself: Gulf pivots to Tehran. That is too neat. What is really happening is a hedge. New defence pacts with France and Canada, deeper GCC cooperation, and pragmatic channels reopened with the same Iran that just bombed them, on the theory that money might deter where missiles did not.

The mood is not warmth, it is resignation. “Iran is here to stay,” one Qatari official told CSIS.

And here is the tell for Washington: the Gulf still wants America. It is quietly pushing for a treaty-level pact to shore up ties it no longer fully believes in. That is not loyalty. It is a customer who finally read the warranty and saw how much of it was decorative.