Day 16. Hormuz is still shut.

Oil up 45% since Feb 27. Brent over $103. No ceasefire in sight. SPR covers maybe 12–15% of the gap.

The trade:

long crude, cut equity exposure — especially net energy importers (Japan, Korea, Europe).

Interest rates, the dollar, and oil all rising together. When that happens, the tide goes out on everyone.

Stay in cash. Stay short duration. Stay alert.