Day 40. Long crude since sub $80.

A two-week ceasefire doesn't undo six weeks of structural damage.

Kharg Island still loads tankers — but Asaluyeh, Iran's largest petrochemical complex, lost 85% of capacity to Israeli strikes on Day 38. Saudi Jubail was hit 24 hours later. 9 million barrels/day of Middle East output is shut in. 800+ ships are still trapped behind Hormuz. Zero oil tankers have moved since the ceasefire.

Iran's 10-point demands read like a wish list, not a peace plan. The Pentagon calls this "a pause, not an end." Hegseth wants Iran to hand over enriched uranium. Israel launched its largest Lebanon strikes on the same day the ceasefire was announced.

Brent dropped 15% on a headline. Dubai physical is still at $128. The paper market bought the ceasefire. The physical market didn't.

Full breakdown in this week's Playbook.