Imo Vance made the 3 biggest mistakes of the night(and thus imo he actually lost); 1\getting his Mic cut made him look silly;2\ he blatantly lied about the national abortion ban, and 3\he would not definitely give an opinion on either January6 or this year's election outcome; so, taking those observations into account, I can see where a neutral observer would basically call it a tie; that Politico poll saying that Walz won the independent portion is very telling(which tells me that Walz actually outperformed expectations)