Ukrainian President Zelensky fires Minister of Defense Fedorov for a second consecutive July own goal - why now?

Nearly a year after Ukraine’s parliament committed an unforced own goal by passing a law gutting the two primary anticorruption institutions NABU and SAP, endangering Ukraine’s reform path to Europe, Ukrainian President Zelensky seemingly has repeated the July mistake by dismissing reformist Minister of Defense Fedorov July 15 as part of a wider government shakeup.

Pressure from Ukrainian civil society and European partners led to a reversal of the July 2025 law enforcement sector misstep, reinstating the status of the investigatory body NABU and anti-corruption prosecutor SAP.  Full recovery from this 2026 unforced own goal in removing an impressive Minister of Defense who was driving the reforms Ukraine needs and its soldiers sought seems less likely. Regardless, Ukraine will continue to innovate technology and fight on in its existential war against murderous Russian aggression and occupation.

The immediate reaction of Ukrainian society, those in uniform, and external supporters of Ukraine to Fedorov’s dismissal was uniformly negative.  Fedorov’s departure will at a minimum blunt the positive narrative momentum of the past month, in terms of both technological advances and systemic reforms as Ukraine seeks to move forward on the road towards European Union membership while simultaneously fighting Russia.

Fedorov’s dismissal likely will also lead to lower morale and anger among Ukrainians in uniform, since they saw him as the first minister to initiate reforms that improved their terms of service and battled enduring pathologies inherited from the Soviet system..

The rash dismissal of a reformist civilian Minister of Defense is reminiscent of his 2020 spring reset of Zelensky’s first government, when he dismissed young PM Honcharuk and the first civilian DefMin Andriy Zahorodniuk after 6 months as a “change the narrative” reset.  Zahorodniuk’s dismissal came even after he had shared valuable advice on Ukrainian military red lines ahead of the December 2019 summit with Putin in France and had started reforms for more transparent tenders of some procurement.

It was clear in 2020 that  Zagorodniuk’s “sin” was offending incoming Presidential chief of staff Yermak.  In attempting to break enduring iron rice bowls, Fedorov appears to have made enemies in recent months who had sufficient influence to tip Zelensky’s thinking.

Successful as Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Digital Transformation, Fedorov took the Ministry of Defense portfolio reluctantly in January and reportedly on condition there would be significant personnel changes and reforms in corrupt procurement and personnel policies.   Amidst tensions between Fedorov and Military commander Syrsky, Zelensky sent signals to both sides in late spring that they would need to coexist. Now Fedorov is out, while the unpopular Syrsky remains in place.

Fedorov had moved forward to reform procurement mechanisms and personnel management in ways that was winning kudos from those I talked to in Kyiv in early July.  The  pushback from vested interests had been fierce and accelerating in the past two weeks.  SBU affiliated Telegram Channels began attacking him.  Servant of the People faction leader David Arakhamia reportedly challenged Fedorov in front of Zelensky at an inner circle strategy session the first week of July, in the wake of reports Fedorov had disqualified Arakhamia’s companies from several sweetheart drone procurement deals approved under earlier Defense Minister Umerov.

The removal of Zahorodniuk in 2020 and his replacement by a stolid ex general who did little/nothing was not fatal for Ukraine.  Fedorov’s removal potentially could be more consequential due to morale issues in the armed forces, and loss of confidence by key external partners.

But Ukraine will fight on and continue to innovate, driven by private companies, the unmanned systems command, and a civil society determined to see Ukraine succeed in both war and reform to claim its European destiny as the premier global fighter for freedom.