$TDUP

This is a $30 stock priced at $3.

ThredUp solved the hardest problem in resale. Not demand. Supply. They built the only scaled infrastructure in the world that can intake, photograph, inspect, price, and list millions of secondhand garments without the seller lifting a finger.

Over $400 million poured into proprietary logistics. Four U.S. distribution centers. AI valuing 100,000 items per day at 95% accuracy. Poshmark makes the seller do the work. eBay makes the seller do the work. ThredUp does the work for you. That is the moat and nobody is replicating it.

The target customer is a woman aged 25 to 45 with a closet full of clothes she does not wear and zero interest in photographing them one by one for Poshmark. She sends a bag. ThredUp handles everything.

Frictionless supply acquisition in a category where supply is the constraint.

They cracked the nut.

Now the numbers. Revenue $311 million trailing. Growth guided at 13% this year. Active buyers up 26%. Orders up 37%. New buyer acquisition surged 95% last quarter. Gross margins sitting at 79%. This is a marketplace business printing near 80% gross margins with a visible path to 20% to 25% EBITDA margins in five years.

The stock trades at 1x sales.

One times sales.

For a marketplace compounder with this margin profile and this growth trajectory. The entire company is valued at $440 million. That is a rounding error in consumer internet.

Now the macro. 97% of U.S. apparel is imported. Tariffs are repricing every fast fashion competitor in real time. The de minimis loophole closure is gutting Shein and Temu overnight. ThredUp’s supply chain is 100% domestic. Completely tariff immune. Every dollar tariffs add to new clothing makes secondhand more compelling. 59% of consumers say they will shift to secondhand if tariffs push prices higher. That number jumps to 69% among millennials. That is ThredUp’s core demographic.

The global secondhand market is projected at $367 billion by 2029. U.S. online resale alone is expected to nearly double to $40 billion. ThredUp is the scaled infrastructure play in a market growing 3x faster than broader apparel. And the stock is priced like the business is dying.

I think this does 15% to 20% topline growth for a long time. At that rate earnings growth runs north of 25%. A marketplace with 80% gross margins. Positive free cash flow. Structural secular tailwinds. Zero tariff exposure. Trading at 1x revenue.

This is mispriced by a factor of five to ten.

$15 within a year would not surprise me.

$30 within five is the base case.