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For anyone who would like a very cursory summary of this whole prediction market phenomenon, the Daily covers it:
Substack Team Mills Baker - Substack has been, in so many ways, a breath of fresh air among the social media options, a space of discourse. I tend to have a “take it or leave it” approach with the changes and shifts that happen on the platform. But partnering with a prediction market is a bridge too far: I don’t know what the monetary compensation looks like in this deal between Polymarket and Substack, but adding dollar signs to every element of life is no way to promote healthy journalism.
For whatever claims are made about Polymarket’s predictive powers, the level of self-consciousness that it produces is inherently destructive to any viable polling. If Taylor Swift knows that people are betting on her wedding date and sees the bets, that is now part of her calculation. And that’s just a trivial example - there are far more dangerous situations being supported through Polymarket et al.
Polymarket is listed as an illegal gambling site in Switzerland. Substack Team, shaking hands with a gambling market is not supporting journalism, it’s opening up a direct pipeline for readers to the betting market. Another sad step in the wrong direction…
Mills Baker- help me believe otherwise.