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It’s hard to believe that I have almost 90k followers on X.
I’m grateful for everyone and this is especially true given that I still consider myself a nobody.
I’ve always lived by one simple rule when I write: take a stance, make it clear on why, and put my money where my mouth is.
I’ve been wrong a lot and I will be wrong a lot in the future as well. My only goal is to try and get better everyday, that may or may not be true, but as long time readers can attest: I try very hard.
The current Strait of Hormuz “event” is one that will be remembered forever. I hope that many of the mistakes/lessons I’ve made/learned over the years will come in handy.
I think the most apt approach is still to keep an open mind and analyze all the signals for what they are. It’s easy to be anchored to the prevailing view and find evidence to back your original assumption, but if the facts change, you have to change your mind.
With that said, the signals are:
- Refining margins (lower margins = demand destruction starting)
- Physical crude timespreads (higher = demand for crude, lower = loosening balance)
- Tanker flows through the Strait
- Visible onshore inventory draws
- Production shut-in volumes