Inventory draw math is very straightforward.

If the conflict lasts until end of April, total inventories lost (crude + product + restart time) = 1.2 billion bbls

If until the end of May, 1.5 billion bbls

If until the end of June, 1.8 billion bbls

Commercially operable storage is 3.7 billion bbls. China is hoarding, so none of its commercial storage will count.

To put the draw into perspective, in order to “rebuild” the lost inventory, you need an oil market surplus of 2 million b/d for 600, 750, or 900 days (depending on when it ends in the scenario above).

The market will force demand destruction well before we reach this point. The rebuild math is not doable considering non-OPEC supply growth has ended.