Sophie, thank-you for your kind words! It's a bit of a misconception to think of USDA as increasing or decreasing their testing. They are dependent upon states submitting samples, either through reported cases from vets or producers, or from bulk milk tank testing programs like the National Milk Testing Strategy. I sense that the NMTS has taken off somewhat sluggishly, depending on the state. CA and ID are likely testing actively, leading to their new cases. CA is still wrapping up their big statewide outbreak in the last parts of the state that weren't infected earlier. I suspect that ID may be rebreaks in herds infected last year, but no one has been real forthcoming on the details of their cases.

New cases are really a function of intensity of bulk tank testing at this point, plus how much H5N1 is still actually out there in cows, which is a really good question at this point in dairy. I wish someone would do a nationwide retail milk study to estimate that, but not likely to happen with all the cutbacks.

As for the "no culling" strategy, my opinion is that there is a 0% strategy of that happening. The carnage in the flocks would be God-awful - 75-100% mortality, with ongoing mutations and more spread to wildlife and neighboring farms. Surviving chickens would not be breeding stock anyway, which is the tragic fallacy of his dumb idea. It's really hard to conceive that an HHS Secretary could be allowed to utter such nonsense and remain in his position...and that doesn't begin to address his measles malpractice...

John