Monster upward revision on price targets across Canadian Oil Sands producers by National Bank yesterday. Cenovus comes out on top with a 90% hike to $41 (currently down 3% at $25.70).

As for tonight’s address, it seems people think the outcome is binary: either the US exits the war entirely and declares “victory” or we carry out a ground invasion. Either outcome is bullish for oil.

If he leaves, the IRGC gets to keep the Strait closed with effectively zero opposition. Trump will have lost his ability to jawbone. Oil prices go higher, Americans sit there asking themselves: “why is Trump just sitting on the sidelines, not fixing the mistake that he created and that I’m now paying for?” November elections roll around, Hormuz is still closed, Repubs get hit hard, etc.

If he invades and take Kharg Island (or even move in that direction), Iran will reciprocate by doing something like hitting Abqaiq or having the Houthis take out the pipeline.

Perhaps we’ll hear something entirely different. Unless Mojtaba and his jolly party of 32 regional commanders all magically agree to cut a deal because the US has finally learned its lesson, nothing really matters because the Strait will stay closed.